The Beijing Xiangshan Forum – styled as China’s answer to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia’s premier security gathering – is the country’s biggest annual military diplomacy event.
Themed “Common Security and Lasting Peace”, this year’s edition formally opens on Monday and will be attended by security officials from 90 countries and international bodies, including 22 defence ministers.
The Chinese delegation is likely to be without a defence minister, however, as Beijing has yet to announce a replacement for Li Shangfu, who was dismissed without explanation on Tuesday.The vice-chairmen of China’s all-powerful Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, welcomed and held talks with the defence ministers of Vietnam, Laos and Mongolia when they arrived on Saturday to attend the forum, the Chinese defence ministry said. Ranked No 2 and No 3 respectively, both Zhang and He are higher in the Chinese military hierarchy than the defence minister.
Many of the delegates at the forum represent developing and poorer countries, collectively referred to as the Global South. The attendees include representatives from historical enemies Armenia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet states that last week agreed to pursue peace talks over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region in a push by neighbouring Russia, Turkey and Iran.However, none of those mediators would be able to provide the two southern Caucasus countries with effective and practical solutions to settle their decades-old territorial dispute and ethnic conflict, Beijing-based defence expert Li Jie said.
But China might make a difference, and that was the inspiration behind their attending the security dialogue, Li said.
“The participation of the Armenian and Azerbaijani defence ministers indicates that Beijing has been a more active peacemaker in global conflicts,” said Li, highlighting China’s efforts to mediate a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza war.“The more conflict there is, the more China wants to intervene because it can exert more influence. China is [also] the most capable country to take part in post-war reconstruction in these battered countries.”
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Why Azerbaijan and Armenia went to war over Nagorno-Karabakh
Why Azerbaijan and Armenia went to war over Nagorno-Karabakh
Sun Yu, a Central Asia researcher and former visiting scholar at the Andijan State University in Uzbekistan, said China could place Armenia and Azerbaijan under its long-established frameworks – the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) anti-terror mechanism and the multinational Belt and Road Initiative.“The first step is to approve the SCO observer status sought by Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Sun, now an independent researcher focusing on regional security and major power relations, said.
SCO secretary general Zhang Ming said in March that the organisation was actively considering the two countries’ applications for observer status.
The SCO, set up in 2001, is seen as part of Beijing’s ambitions to counter the Western-led international order. China, Russia, Pakistan, India and the four central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were joined by Iran as the ninth SCO member state in July.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are currently among the group’s six dialogue partners.
“Beijing can also include the two countries into its [belt and road] international logistics construction corridor, or directly mediate and push negotiations between them,” Sun said.
“As an inland state, Armenia has been blockaded by Turkey [which supports Baku] and Azerbaijan for decades and out of reach of [belt and road] projects. If China could convince both countries to work on the same project for mutual benefit, their territorial disputes will not be a problem any more.”
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Beijing Xiangshan Forum organisers have billed this year’s event as the biggest ever. Launched in 2006 as a biennial gathering, it became annual from 2015, before in-person editions were suspended from 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Sessions this year will cover issues ranging from security cooperation to the role of developing countries in global security, and the direction and goals for regional security and development.
“In particular, there is a big increase in representation from developing countries and international and regional organisations,” Chinese defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian said on Thursday.
The forum will not only amplify China’s views on regional disputes, but also give developing and small countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan a platform “to present their own explanations, and let their voice be heard by the outside world”, according to Zhou Chenming, researcher at the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank.
“Many members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) that are regular participants of the Shangri-La Dialogue also sent their defence ministers to Xiangshan this year, indicating China’s growing global influence,” he added.
All but two of the 10 Asean member states – Brunei and the Philippines – have sent their defence chiefs to the forum.
Many of the Asean countries also sent delegations to the third belt and road forum held in Beijing about two weeks ago, marking the 10th anniversary of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s flagship multinational investment initiative.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping unveils 8-point vision for nation’s Belt and Road Initiative at forum
Chinese President Xi Jinping unveils 8-point vision for nation’s Belt and Road Initiative at forum
Addressing that forum on October 18, Xi pledged another 780 billion yuan (US$107 billion) for the initiative over the next five years. This includes 350 billion yuan each for policy lenders China Development Bank and Export-Import Bank of China to finance loans, and the remaining 80 billion yuan for state-backed investment vehicle the Silk Road Fund.Analysts read the move as reiterating Xi’s commitment to his signature project and its centrality to his geopolitical vision, noting how closely he tied China’s development to that of emerging economies.
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